Why HOLD?
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Summary
1.
Sentiment has improved from cautious/negative to more constructive on the back of the Telia deal and insider buying, though investors remain focused on Allente integration execution risk and 2026 cash flow/deleveraging progress.
2.
Tidigare 'avvakta Q4' är nu passerat; rapporten ger 2026-guidning (EBITDA 1,0–1,4 mdr) och bekräftar integrationskostnader (270–330 MSEK) samt synergimål (300–400 MSEK från 2027). Det motiverar fortsatt 'review' snarare än att öka, tills marknaden får bevis på att 2026-kassaflöde och skuldsättning utvecklas enligt plan under Q1/Q2.
3.
Bull case: - **Teknisk rekyl** från extremt översålda nivåer efter historiskt kursfall
- Positiv marknadseffekt från det fullbordade förvärvet av **Allente**
- Ökad **ARPU** (genomsnittlig intäkt per användare) genom prishöjningar
Latest news
Since 2026-02-20, Viaplay has (1) secured a renewed multi-year distribution agreement with Telia after a dispute, reducing the risk of losing reach and sports distribution, (2) announced exclusive Nordic rights to the EFL Championship through the 2028 season, (3) seen meaningful insider buying (including CEO purchases around ~SEK 11–12m plus additional insider buying), and (4) received a modest positive analyst catalyst as Kepler Cheuvreux raised its target price to SEK 1.45 (hold). The share price has also rebounded from ~SEK 1.25 to ~SEK 1.42 by mid-March.